7 markets at risk of exchange crises says Nomura's Damocles; India least at risk

Last Updated: Tue, Sep 11, 2018 14:51 hrs
FILE PHOTO - A money changer holds Turkish lira banknotes next to U.S. dollar bills at a currency exchange office in central Istanbul

According to Nomura Investments, seven countries namely Sri Lanka, South Africa, Argentina, Pakistan, Egypt, Ukraine, and Turkey, are at risk of an exchange rate crisis.

Nomura's new gauge Damocles has assessed the risk of exchange rate crises for 30 emerging market economies.

According to the tool a score above 150 indicates extreme crisis while anything above 100 is considered risky proposition.

The tool has been created to help investors reassess investments following a contagion in Argentina and Turkey said Nomura.

Sri Lanka with a score of 175 was the most riskiest investment bet followed by South Africa (143), Argentina (140), Pakistan (136), Egypt (111), Turkey (104) and Ukraine (100).

India's score stood at 25.

According to the global financial services major, emerging markets are under pressure as investors reassess the risks amid monetary policy normalisation in developed markets, trade protectionism and China's economic slowdown.

On India, the report said CPI inflation had moderated (to around 4.5 percent in 2018 from 9.7 percent in 2012), as had the current account deficit (around 2.5 percent of GDP versus 5 percent). Moreover, the central bank has a sufficient forex reserve buffer, as a result, India's score has fallen to 25 in the July-September quarter.

"Given that India runs a current account deficit, it remains vulnerable to bouts of global risk aversion," Nomura said, adding that "higher oil prices and portfolio outflows are its key external vulnerabilities."

The other risk factors for the Indian economy stem from the government turning more populist ahead of the 2019 general elections and a sharper-than-expected domestic growth slowdown, which in turn would trigger equity outflows, it added.

The Indian rupee has depreciated 13 percent so far in 2018 and touched a historic low of Rs 72.67 to a dollar on Tuesday.

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