Economists' estimate of Japan quake impact

The following is a summary of analysts' assessments of the likely economic impact of the devastating earthquake and tsunami that struck the northeast coast of Japan. Most assessments were published before workers were ordered to withdraw briefly from a quake-hit nuclear plant amid fears that the crisis was spiralling out of control.

GOLDMAN SACHS

Economic impact:

Total economic losses likely to hit 16 trillion yen (Rs 8.96 trillion)

Real GDP likely to decline by 0.5-2 percent in Q2

Comment:

"We based our estimates on three scenarios: (a) our base scenario, with power outages lasting until end-April, as Tokyo Electric Power is currently indicating, (b) outages lasting until end-June, and (c) outages lasting until end-December.

"In our base scenario (a), we estimate that real GDP will contract in the second-quarter, but return to 2 percent growth in the third quarter, once the impact of power outages disappears. Real GDP is pushed down around 0.5 percent in this case.

"In the event power outages are prolonged however, such as cases (b) and (c), we estimate a 2 percent contraction in real GDP in 2Q; and if they were to last until end-December (case c), we estimate GDP would continue declining until the year-end."

Image: A large ship sits among rubble after it was hit by a tsunami in Kesennuma, northeastern Japan, on Saturday March 12, 2011, one day after a giant quake and tsunami struck the country's northeastern coast.

Images & Text: AP