The government is incapable of initiating the big-bang reforms that could set off a boom and there isn't the requisite liquidity in the system.
History never repeats exactly but there is a broad pattern.
If this crisis goes by the book, there will be a big currency depreciation, a fall in stock market capitalisation, a cutback in GDP growth rates, net capital outflows and high inflation.
A potential banking crisis is also on the cards.
It has happened here before, and it's happened in other economies, with similar problems.
None of this sounds pleasant.
But there's no point in being an ostrich with head buried in the sand.
Investors did make money through these crises. The most successful hoarded cash in the early stages and then bought assets when prices collapsed.
This is not a safe strategy.
But there is no such thing as a safe strategy in such a situation.
Cartoon: Satish Acharya