In 2004, before India's growth surge towards Chinese levels became evident, Dani Rodrik of Harvard University and I wrote in the Economic and Political Weekly that India's potential growth was "at least 7 per cent".
The outcome over the next few years was a pleasant surprise, but also a mild rebuke of our analysis. Not only did actual growth surpass our projection, it was achieved much sooner than our "medium-term" horizon - which was evasive econo-speak for "not immediately, but sometime in the future".
Now, as economic growth declines from its giddy pre-crisis levels, two questions arise.
First, what is India's true growth potential: today's rate of close to seven per cent, as we had suggested, or the pre-global crisis rate of nine per cent?
Second, has this government contributed to a decline in this potential?
Text: Arvind Subramanian, Business Standard
Cartoon: Satish Acharya