Indian gold futures are likely to fall past their lowest in a month this week weighed by expectations of a stronger rupee and as investors resort to year-end profit-taking, with traders also eyeing the Federal Reserve. Silver may rise.
The rupee plays an important role in determining the landed cost of the dollar-quoted yellow metal. Investors await a U.S. Federal Reserve policy meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday, after which the Reserve Bank of India is expected to announce fresh bond purchases of $45 billion a month to replace Operation Twist.
The actively traded gold for February delivery on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) was 0.31 percent higher at 31,422 rupees per 10 grams, after hitting a high of 31,439 rupees, the highest since December 5. The yellow metal had gained about 15 percent since the start of the year.
"Gold could be weak on the back of an appreciating rupee and profit-taking in the international markets," said Gnanasekar Thiagarajan, director of Commtrendz Research.
Selling is advised in MCX gold at 31,575-600, with a stop loss at 31,800, targeting 31,250, said Thiagarajan.
Silver futures could rise. Silver for immediate delivery on the MCX was 0.73 percent higher at 63,038 rupees per kg.
Buying is advised at 62,200-62,250 for a target of 63,400/63,900, with a stop loss of 61,600 rupees, said an analyst with Karvy Comtrade in Hyderabad.