India cotton output seen below estimate on crop woes

India's cotton output in 2007/08 is likely to fall below the forecast of 31 million bales as key growing states have been hit by pest attacks and crop disease, government and trade officials said.

The Cotton Advisory Board, a body comprising government and trade officials, had earlier expected India's cotton output in 2007/08 to hit a record 31 million bales, up almost 11 percent from 28 million bales a year ago.

Excess rainfall in key cotton growing states like Punjab, Maharashtra and Haryana have created a conducive climate for pests like mealy bug, grey mildew disease and reddening, a physiological disorder, researchers said.

"There are certain issues in Punjab. It is expected that due to mealy bug, production may decline by 10-15 percent," said J.N. Singh, chairman, Cotton Advisory Board, and textile commissioner.

It was earlier expected that Punjab would produce 4 million bales in 2007/08, Singh said.

In Maharashtra, the largest grower, production may be affected by over 5 percent.

"We are expecting pests and diseases might affect production up to 5 percent (in Maharashtra)," said N.P. Hirani, chairman of the Maharashtra State Cotton Growers Marketing Federation Ltd.

"But it may go up to 10 percent if favorable conditions remain for pests and diseases."

In 2006/07, Maharashtra produced 5.2 million bales of cotton bales.

Hirani said humid climate is conducive for crop diseases while dry, sunny weather helps prevent the spread of pests.

"In many parts, the crop is in boll formation stage and attack in such stage will have direct effect on production," L. A. Deshpande, head, crop improvement, Central Institute for Cotton Research (CICR).

Other major producing states like Gujarat, Andhra Pradesh and Rajasthan have also reported minor pest attacks in some pockets.

Kishorilal Jhunjhunwala, president of the East India Cotton Association, said, "There is some damage because of diseases in some pockets, but (it) is negligible."

"At the all India level the crop is certainly beyond 30 million bales," Jhunjhunwala added.

India achieved a jump in cotton yields after it allowed commercial cultivation of cotton hybrids in 2002.

With increased adoption of bacillus thuringiensis, or Bt cotton, the average yield rose to 520 kg a hectare in 2006/07, from 308 kg in 2001/02.

However, the Bt variety, which is resistant to bollworm pest, is not effective against mealy bug and reddenings, Deshpande of CICR said.