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India Markets Weekaheads - GDP data key for FX/debt markets

Source : REUTERS
Last Updated: Fri, Aug 24, 2012 11:26 hrs
A grocery shop owner counts rupees in the western Indian city of Ahmedabad

Economic growth data for the April-June quarter on August 31 will be the key event for Indian bond and FX markets.

The data is considered critical ahead of the RBI's mid-September policy meeting, as a sharp slowdown in growth could increase pressure on the central bank to overcome its reluctance to cut interest rates.

A slew of economists have cut their forecasts for India's growth in the fiscal year ending in March 2013, with Citigroup and CLSA expecting expansion of only 5.4 percent and 5.5 percent, respectively, the lowest in nearly a decade.

Traders also eyeing fiscal deficit data as of July out on August 31. The deficit had hit 1.9 trillion rupees as of June, or already 37.1 percent of the government's target for the full fiscal year.

India 10-year bond yield likely to trade in 8.18-8.25 percent band in the run-up to GDP data, traders say.

USD/INR likely to trade in a 55-56 range, with good demand seen from oil importers in the last week of the month, although global risk factors will also be key.




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