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Intermediate trend reversal confirmed

Source : BUSINESS_STANDARD
Last Updated: Sun, Nov 01, 2009 19:50 hrs

Prices collapsed in settlement week with the Nifty dropping 5.7 per cent to close at 4,711.7 points. The Sensex was down 5.5 per cent, closing at 15,896 points. The Defty was down 6.8 per cent with the dollar bouncing from over-sold levels.

The poor sentiment was mainly due to continuous and heavy selling by FIIs. Although domestic institutions bought, they couldn’t match the supply on offer. Volumes were pretty heavy in both cash and derivatives segments. Advances were heavily outnumbered by declines. The BSE 500 dropped 6.2 per cent while the Midcaps dropped 7.8 per cent.

Outlook: The market is testing a critical support at 4,700 and there are some signs that it is over-sold. If the support holds, a short-term uptrend till around 4,950 level is possible. If the 4,700 support breaks, the next support is at 4,600. The intermediate trend is clearly bearish and net losses through November look likely. Expect a rise in volatility.

Rationale: The intermediate trend is into week two of bearishness, following 13 weeks of bullishness. Normally intermediate trends last between 6-10 weeks so net losses are likely through November. Chart patterns indicate a downwards breakout from range-trading between 4,900-5,100, with an initial target of 4,750, which has been exceeded. Volatility has already risen on the breakout.

Counter-view: Momentum indicators suggest the market is oversold in the short-term.

So there could be a bounce – especially if the FIIs reverse their attitude. The long-term trend is still positive as far as we can tell. In such circumstances, it’s possible that the intermediate downtrend could end fairly quickly. As of now, the maximum upside appears to be around 5,050. However, if the intermediate downtrend ends, the first signal would be 5,050 being exceeded.

Bulls & bears: There were sell-offs across most sectors except for sugar, which has been on a sustained bull run. The worst-hit sectors included banking and realty while the IT sector showed comparatively greater defensive strength. Metals also saw big losses following weak trends in international commodity markets. FMCGs displayed their traditional defensive strength in crisis situations.

This sort of across-the-board movement suggests that any market recovery will also occur across the board. As and when the market bounces, the worst-hit sectors will also rebound the highest. Hence, an optimist will be going long on the high-volume bank and realty stocks. Pharma and IT trends will depend to some extent on dollar movements.

MICRO TECHNICALS

Bajaj Hindustan
Current Price: Rs 196.45
Target Price: Rs 215


The stock has corrected from recent highs and is consolidating on support. Keep a stop at Rs 192 and go long.

Book partial profits between Rs 210-215. There is a chance that the stock could rise till around the Rs 225 levels so it makes sense to retain around one-third of the original position above Rs 215.

TCS
Current Price: Rs 628
Target Price: Rs 600


The stock is developing an encouraging pattern of higher highs and lows. However, it is in correction mode right now and likely to ease down till it hits support at around Rs 595-605. Keep a stop at Rs 635 and go short. Start booking profits at below Rs 605.

Dr Reddy’s Labs
Current Price: Rs 1,019
Target Price: Rs 1,070


The stock has made an upwards breakout on reasonable volumes. It has a potential target of around Rs 1,070-1,100. Keep a stop at Rs 1,000 and go long. Increase the position above 1,040. Start booking profits above the Rs 1,070-mark.

Axis Bank
Current Price: Rs 907
Target Price: Rs 990


The stock has hit a fairly strong support. If it rebounds, there could be a clear run-up till around the Rs 990 mark. Keep a stop at Rs 900 and go long. Increase the position if the stock crosses the Rs 930-mark. Start booking profits above Rs 970.

Mahindra & Mahindra
Current Price: Rs 921.95
Target Price: Rs 900


The stock is still settling down and consolidating around support between Rs 900-930. It is likely to test the bottom of this range again. Keep a stop at Rs 935 and go short. Start covering the position at around Rs 905.



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