OPEC cuts 2018 world oil demand growth forecast over Turkey, Brazil, Argentina concern

Last Updated: Fri, Oct 12, 2018 16:30 hrs

London: The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) downgraded its global oil demand estimate due to changes in economy forecasts for Turkey, Brazil, Argentina, a report by the OPEC showed Thursday. The OPEC, however, has forecasted non-OPEC oil supply growth to increase by 200,000 barrels per day in 2018.

"In 2018, world oil demand growth is estimated at 1.54 mb/d, following a downward revision of around 80 tb/d from the previous month's assessment, mainly to reflect the most up-to-date data in OECD Europe and the Middle East, as well as the latest developments in the economies of in Latin America. Total oil demand for the year is now pegged at 98.79 mb/d. In 2019, world oil demand growth is forecast at 1.36 mb/d, down by around 50 tb/d from last month's projections, mainly reflecting adjustments in the economic projections for Turkey, Brazil and Argentina," the report read.

The demand for the oil produced by the OPEC will decrease by 0.8 million barrels per day in 2018, compared to 2017, to 32.7 million barrels per day, the OPEC report showed. "Demand for OPEC crude in 2018 is estimated at 32.7 mb/d, 0.8 mb/d lower than the 2017 level. In 2019, demand for OPEC crude is forecast at 31.8 mb/d, around 0.9 mb/d lower than the estimated level in 2018," the report read.

OPEC increased its production in September by 132,000 barrels per day compared to last month to an average of 32.76 million per day, with crude output up mostly in Saudi Arabia, Libya, and Angola, the report claimed.

"According to secondary sources, total OPEC-15 crude oil production averaged 32.76 mb/d in September, an increase of 132 tb/d over the previous month. Crude oil output increased mostly in Saudi Arabia, Libya and Angola, while production declined in Iran, I.R., Venezuela and Algeria," the report read.

The OPEC expects non-OPEC oil supply growth to increase by 200,000 barrels per day in 2018, driven mostly by US, Canada, Kazakhstan and Brazil, according to the organization's report.

"Non-OPEC oil supply growth in 2018 is estimated at 2.22 mb/d, an upward revision of 0.20 mb/d from the previous month's assessment. The US, Canada, Kazakhstan and Brazil are expected to be the main drivers for y-o-y growth, while Mexico, Norway, Indonesia and Vietnam will show the largest declines. Total non- OPEC supply for 2018 is now estimated at 59.77 mb/d," the report read.

The report further said that Tehran decreased its oil production by 150,000 barrels per day to 3.447 million barrels per day in September amid United States sanctions against the Iranian crude. The country's production quota under OPEC-non-OPEC Vienna deal stands at 3.8 mb/d.

Russia achieved a new post-Soviet oil production record in September with 11.54 million barrels per day on average. "Russia has hit a new post-Soviet record for oil production in September, an increase of 0.15 mb/d from the previous month, to average 11.54 mb/d, according to preliminary estimates," the report read.

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