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Wait for RBI move on October 30

Source : BUSINESS_STANDARD
Last Updated: Sat, Oct 20, 2012 18:41 hrs
A man walks past an RBI logo in front of its building in Kolkata

The markets remained subdued during the week under review, as rising inflation and muted earnings growth by major companies weighed on investor sentiment. Inflation rose 7.81 per cent in September from a year earlier, way above the central bank's comfort zone, putting it in a dilemma ahead of its monetary policy meet on October 30. However, Asian and American markets edged higher, on the back of strong earnings by US companies.

Five of the six fund managers remained active between October 15 and 18.

A K PRABHAKAR
Sr VP (Equity Research), Anand Rathi Financial Services

There was only one addition in his portfolio, in the form of ING Vysya Bank. At the same time, he sold Sun Pharmaceuticals, Bayer CropScience and Coromandel International, with gains of two to six per cent.

Being cautious and remainign stock-specific, Prabhakar believes, would hold more value through this results season. Also, it is important to see if the government could implement most of the reforms it has announced thus far. Going ahead, he expects a Cash reserve Ratio cut 9at RBI's October 30 review) and if a rate cut happened, it would be a welcome move, with a possible re-rating for public sector banks. His top holdings include Tata Coffee, Emami, Coromandel International, ING Vysya Bank and Pfizer. The net worth is at Rs 10.6 lakh, up six per cent.

SHARDUL KULKARNI
Head, Technical Research, Angel Broking

Kulkarni had several transactions on the sell side - CEAT, Godrej Industries, Balrampur Chini Mills and Ranbaxy Laboratories, which gained between two and 10 per cent. On the other hand, he cleared off Speciality Restaurants and Godrej Properties with a one to two per cent loss. His additions this week were Aban Offshore, MTNL, Jindal Steel & Power and Lovable Lingerie .

Kulkarni says at this juncture, it is difficult to say if all the factors of a bull market are present. While one can say the government has done its bit in improving investor sentiment and foreign institutional investors are continuously pumping liquidity into the market, threats of rising fuel subsidies and sticky inflation remain. It remains a buy on the dips market.

With this, his top five holdings are Bank of India, Punjab National Bank, Jindal Steel & Power, Lovable Lingerie and Aban Offshore. The net worth is Rs 11.57 lakh, up 15.7 per cent.

NAVEEN FERNANDES
Fund Manager, Centrum Wealth

Fernandes was inactive during the period under review. He says triggers such as corporate earnings, expected monetary easing by RBI, the flow of foreign direct investment into retail and aviation and, finally, a substantial trigger of possible political realignment, leading to passage of reform bills, would help markets to maintain an uptrend. He says: "We expect RBI to, most probably, cut the repo rate or at least CRR by 25 to 50 basis points, as banks have already been cutting rates by 25-50 bps without waiting for the policy. Also, growth is correcting across global economies, which will lead to moderation in commodity prices leading to lower inflation in India (a stronger rupee will aid this)."

BASF India, ITC, KA5V1BK2, NESCO and Bharat Electronics are his top five holdings. Fernandes' net worth is Rs 10.87 lakh, up 8.7 per cent.

KISHOR OSTWAL
CMD, CNI Research

Ostwal made a single move through the week, with a buy call on Siemens. He says if RBI announces a rate cut on October 30, we can surely say a bull market has set in. The real inflexion point for growth and the bull market is a rate cut and now RBI has no choice but to compromise with high inflation.

Currently, Tata Steel, BF Utilities, Clariant Chemicals, Century Textiles & Industries and Siemens are his top picks. Ostwal's net worth is Rs 10.62 lakh, up 6.2 per cent.

SACHIN SHAH
Fund Manager, Emkay Investment Managers

Shah included names like Reliance Industries, PTC India Financial Services and NIIT Technologies to his portfolio. He believes it will take some time for economic growth to be back on track and attract foreign investors. Considering the inflation picture, he says some of the steps taken by the government might lead to appreciation of the currency, in turn reducing future inflation. Also, global commodity prices (barring oil) have cooled quite a bit. Therefore, there is a possibility of a 0.25 per cent reduction in the repo rate.

His top holdings include IDFC, Exide Industries, Reliance Industries, Hathway Cable & Datacom and Divis Laboratories. Shah's net worth is Rs 10.75 lakh, up 7.5 per cent.

TAHER BADSHAH
Sr VP and co-head equities, Motilal Oswal AMC - PMS

Unitech was the only new pick. Meanwhile, he booked a loss of 0.3 per cent in Pidilite Industries. He says though all the factors necessary for a bull market are yet to set, there is a decent chance of all the remaining factors evolving over the next six to 12 months. This includes RBI going ahead with a 25 bps cut on CRR and the repo rate.

His top five holdings are Crompton Greaves,Tata Steel, OnMobile Global, Multi Commodity Exchange of India and HDFC. Badshah's net worth is Rs 10.97 lakh, up 9.7 per cent.


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