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Waiting for RBI, govt action

Source : BUSINESS_STANDARD
Last Updated: Sat, Jul 28, 2012 18:40 hrs
Police officer stands guard in front of the RBI head office in Mumbai

The markets witnessed volatility in the July futures & options expiry week, with the Nifty slipping below the 200-DMA level. Bank shares were the most hurt, as a Reserve Bank of India panel proposed strict norms for loan restructuring.

Policy paralysis continued to dampen investor sentiment, as increase in diesel prices has been postponed. Worries about slowing global growth and the deepening Euro zone sovereign debt crisis also weighed on market sentiment but, surprisingly, inflows from foreign funds was a silver lining.

Three of the four fund managers of Smart Portfolios Season 4 remained active during June 20-27. All of them believe RBI action will be one of the key drivers, along with government policy action, in the coming weeks. Till then, defensives are the best place to be in.

SACHIN SHAH
Fund manager, Emkay Investment Managers

Shah had two transactions, both on the sell side, during the week. He squared off Adani Enterprises and GMR Infrastructure. His top holdings include State Bank of India, Havells India, Hero MotoCorp, Hathway Cable & Datacom and Essar Oil. The net worth is valued at Rs 9.18 lakh, down 8.15 per cent.

SACHIN SHAH
Top holdings Cost
price (Rs)
Current
price (Rs)
Value
(Rs lakh)
Havells India  590.05  570.10 0.57
Mahindra & Mahindra  683.65 682.00 0.51
ICICI Bank  921.10 906.75 0.45
Hero MotoCorp  1,957.88 2088.70 0.41
LIC Housing Finance  243.76  245.00 0.37
Total investments     6.09
Cash      3.09
Net worth     9.18

RIKESH PARIKH
VP (equity strategies), Motilal Oswal Securities

Parikh carried out several transactions during the period under review. He bought Dr Reddys Laboratories and JSW Energy. On the other hand, he exited from ICICI Bank, ITC, Jaiprakash Associates, ICICI Bank and Cairn India.

Defensive sectors such as pharmaceuticals and fast moving consumer goods are the preferred counters in this range-bound market. However, he would switch to rate-sensitives like banking or real estate if there is a rate cut higher than 25 bps in the coming RBI meet. Policy action and rainfall data are some of the other factors he will be watching for in the meantime.

His current top holdings include HCL Technologies, Hindalco Industries, Engineers India, Oberoi Realty and Eicher Motors. Parikhs’s net worth is Rs 10.14 lakh, up 1.4 per cent.

RIKESH PARIKH
Top holdings Cost
price (Rs)
Current
price (Rs)
Value
(Rs lakh)
Engineers India  240.44 229.70 0.80
HCL Technologies  495.96 511.75 0.64
Oberoi Realty  243.13 230.65 0.58
JSW Energy  51.83 48.90 0.49
Eicher Motors  1980.84 1952.05 0.49
Total investments     5.95
Cash      4.19
Net worth     10.14

ASHISH MITTAL
Fund Manager (PMS), Centrum Wealth

Mittal remained inactive during the week. His top holdings include Balmer Lawrie & Co, KA5V1BK2, Tide Water Oil Co (I), Unichem Laboratories and Cairn India.

He opines that markets could be weak if the government doesn’t show any sign of action on reform. Also, in such a scenario, RBI might ignore the need for monetary easing.

Mid-cap information technology and pharma are his favourite bets, as these segments are relatively better positioned to tackle stress coming from currency risk and overall manufacturing slowing.

Mittal’s net worth is Rs 10.33 lakh, up 3.3 per cent.

ASHISH MITTAL
Top holdings Cost
price (Rs)
Current
price (Rs)
Value
(Rs lakh)
Unichem Laboratories  144.82 147.15 0.81
Tide Water Oil Co(I) 6988.28 7586.10 0.76
Balmer Lawrie & Company 618.48 566.50 0.74
Karur Vysya Bank 372.59 414.70 0.71
Cairn India  325.21 314.10 0.60
Total investments     8.70
Cash      1.63
Net worth     10.33

ALEX MATHEWS
Head (technical and derivatives research), Geojit BNP Paribas Financial Services

He carried out five transactions during the period under review. He added CMC to his portfolio and sold off Aptech, Titan Industries, Hindalco Industries and Britannia Industries.

With the Nifty slipping below the 200-DMA level, he believes that with no major triggers, the market might remain subdued for at least one or two weeks. FMCG, pharma and IT are some of the pockets he is watching. His top holdings include CRISIL, Timken India, Tata Coffee, CMC and MindTree. Mathews’ net worth totals Rs 9.27 lakh, down 7.3 per cent.

ALEX MATHEWS
Top holdings Cost
price (Rs)
Current
price (Rs)
Value
(Rs lakh)
CRISIL  1,071.07 956.20 0.86
Timken India  234.28 186.90 0.77
Tata Coffee  954.03 922.45 0.69
CMC  968.11 980.05 0.49
MindTree  703.76 624.95 0.31
Total investments     3.70
Cash      5.57
Net worth     9.27



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