Arun Kejriwal runs his own advisory firm, M/s Kejriwal Research and Investment Services Pvt Ltd. He advises HNIs, corporates and brokers on managing portfolios and investment opportunities.
He helps new promoters to tap the capital markets and also those who are keen to learn the nuances of the market. Equipped with a commerce and law degree, he has rich experience of over two decades in dealing with the markets.
Indian bourses were at the receiving end on every single day this week. The markets have fallen substantially and have lost more than what they gained in the last two weeks. World markets were also weak, but not as much as the Indian markets. Inflation has fallen further to 6.61 per cent. Volumes have shrunk and it is holiday season without the holiday spirit.
Pyramid Saimira Theatre Ltd, known as PSTL or 'pistol,' stocks witnessed a lot of action over the last week. There was a fraudulent letter purported to be from SEBI asking the promoter of the company to make an open offer at Rs 200, which appeared in all the newspapers.
The company did not receive the letter, but the entire media received the same. The stock lost a staggering Rs 25.85 or 34.29% to close at Rs 49.55. It would be interesting to see what action will be taken by the SEBI, as the intention was to cheat and defraud shareholders and investors.
Coming back to the markets, which continued to be volatile, even with the expiration of December series last week, we did not see any rally whatsoever. The Dow Jones once again closed almost flat losing 63.56 points or 0.74% to close at 8515.55 points, while the Nasdaq lost 34.08 points or 2.18 % to close at 1530.24 points.
Asian markets fared mixed with the Nikkei gaining and the Hang Seng losing heavily and being spared because of a holiday on Friday. While Nikkei gained 151 points or 1.76% to close at 8739.52 points, Hang Seng lost 943.27 points or 6.24% to close at 14184.14 points.
The BSE Sensex lost 770.99 points or 7.63% to close at 9328.92 points, once again failing to hold on to the physiological 10k mark after remaining above it for just one week.
The Nifty lost 220.25 points or 7.16% to close at 2857.25. The losses in the benchmark indices were also reflected in the broader market as well. The BSE Realty was the biggest loser losing 324.42 points or 12.85% at 2200.92 points. The BSE Metal, BSE IT, BSE Capital Goods and BSE Oil & Gas all lost between 8.2% and 8.9%. The best performing sectoral index was the BSE Healthcare, which lost a mere 72.58 points or 2.45% to close at 2888.09 points.
Our pick for last week saw its stop loss being triggered and the entire fall in the market being unexpected. This week trading volumes will be very poor and hence no trading recommendations are being made. Some amount of NAV propping may see some positive action, but all in all, the bearishness is likely to continue.
The Sensex has support at around the 9180 levels, then around the 9025 level, then at 8750 levels and finally at 8400 levels. It has immediate resistance at 9600-9630 levels, then at 9900 level, 10010 and finally at 10780 levels. For the Nifty, support exists at 2765, then at 2700 and finally at 2500 levels. On the upside, there is resistance at 2930, then at 3030-3045 and finally at 3295 levels.
This week I believe it is time to retrospect and introspect and look at the year gone by. It would be great if one can take stock of the mistakes made and take corrective action going forward. The main reason why people must do this is because 2009 will be even more challenging. But, if you are on the right side of the trend, making money would not only be easier but also plentiful. Enjoy the quiet times as long as it lasts and look forward to a great 2009.
Here's wishing all a happy and prosperous new year.
SEBI disclaimer: I have no investments in any of the stocks recommended above.
The writer invites comments at firstname.lastname@example.org