10 improbable (but possible) things that could happen in 2012

2011 was a happening year and there are all indications that 2012 will be eventful too.

Here are ten things that are improbable but possible.

1. Manmohan Singh becomes President of India

In July 2012, Pratibha Patil will complete her five-year term as President of India. Will she get another term or will the UPA go in for a fresh face? One name being touted is that of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh. By then he would have completed 8 years in office and could be gracefully kicked upstairs.

That would give the UPA a license to go in for a widespread cabinet reshuffle to inject some life into the government.

Lok Sabha Speaker Meira Kumar could be the new Prime Minister if the Congress wants to play the Dalit card. It could be Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee if the high command forgives him for leaving the party in the 1980s.

If the Congress is feeling really adventurous, then they could even go in for Rahul Gandhi!

2. Rahul Gandhi becomes Congress President

Why did Congress President Sonia Gandhi disappear for more than a month and stay at a cancer hospital in America? Since the Congress refuses to part with even an iota of information on the issue, speculation is rife.

She could still stand down from the party post on health grounds and hand over the mantle to her son. She has after all been party president for a record 13 years now.

3. India become triple champions in Cricket

India will be ODI world champions till 2015. If the Indian team manages to recapture the T20 World Cup in Sri Lanka in September-October, then any time when India gains the Test No. 1 rankings from 2012-14 would see it becoming a record triple world champions in cricket.

4. Telangana gets Statehood

February 2011 saw a non-cooperation movement and Assembly boycott. March saw the Million March. July saw the MLA-MP resignations. September saw another strike.

It's difficult to see how the Centre is going to keep the lid on the Telangana agitation much longer, especially owing to the fact that the premier city of Hyderabad is at the centre of it all.

Mayawati's decision to split UP may have been turned down, but Telangana could yet get statehood in 2012.

5. A Coup takes place in Pakistan

Ayub Khan had the 1965 war. Yahya Khan oversaw the 1971 debacle. Zia-ul-Haq had the Siachen conflict in the 1980s and laid the seeds for militancy in Kashmir. Pervez Musharraf effected the Kargil War in 1999 and came to power in the same year.

Dictators in Pakistan always spell bad news for India.

If 2012 sees a military coup in our neighbouring state, then the geopolitics of the region would go for a toss once again.

6. Petrol touches Rs 100 a litre

Petrol prices have already entered the 70s and show no signs of going down. Once elections end in five states on March 3, the Centre could well say that the next big date is in 2014 and give a free hand to petrol hikes.

With inflation, the global economy in doldrums and the Centre keen on introducing populist schemes, the money has to come from somewhere.

7. The Central Government Falls

2011 was an annus horribilis for UPA. The 2G scam erupted in its face. Its ministers were under siege and one even landed up in jail. Their spokespersons could well have written volumes of “How to make enemies and alienate people”.

And of course, there was social activist Anna Hazare breathing down their neck.

Both the DMK and TMC aren't exactly happy allies. But one wonders if any X factor will make an appearance in 2012 that could well topple the government.

We could then have a Deve Gowda-IK Gujral type of compromise Prime Minister or maybe even mid-term elections.

8. Anna Hazare gets the Bharat Ratna

2011 was a year of confrontation. But one full year is a long time and the end of 2012 could look much different. If Anna and the Centre patch up, then maybe many more things could be achieved like electoral reforms. It is possible that Anna will then be bestowed with the highest award of the land.

9. Queen Elizabeth II steps down

England's Queen Elizabeth will complete 60 years of her rule in 2012. She will be 86 when that happens and could well call it a day and hand over the crown to Prince Charles.

(Unless of course she's eyeing Queen Victoria's record of ruling for 63 years.)

10. The 2G Scam is Bettered

The scam amounts have been getting higher and higher after Independence. The Rs 1.76 lakh crore figure cited in the 2G scam is absolutely mind-boggling. But who's to say that it's the ceiling? In an era where India became a Trillion dollar economy and saw the mushrooming of a record number of dollar billionaires, this dubious figure may yet be breached.

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The author is a Bangalore-based journalist and blogger. He blogs at http://sunilrajguru.com/