Four recent meetings brought India back under the nuclear nonproliferation searchlights.
As the strident debate on whether India’s thermonuclear tests of May 1998 subsided or began to fizzle-out into stalemate over whether or not India really needed thermonuclear weapons for deterrence, these four meetings early this month seemed to trigger a rethink its strategic positioning.
The innings began with US President Barack Obama Chairing a Special UN Security Council Summit session, which endorsed Resolution 1887, which asks all countries “ to sign and ratify” the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) early last month.
Perhaps to reassure India that this resolution was not specifically aimed at New Delhi, President Obama, the host of the follow-up G20 Pittsburg summit, ensured that Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh was seated next to him at the official banquet. This seating was interesting as Obama chose to have no bilateral meetings on the sidelines of the Pittsburg meet.
The second significant meeting at the UN Security Council was to review of its Resolution 1540, passed in 2004. This essentially sought to find new ways and means to prevent the proliferation of nuclear, biological or chemical weapons, particularly to non-State actors (read terrorists). This too had a clear South Asia-centric orientation. While the exposure of the A Q Khan nuclear network in October 2004 had put Pakistan on the defensive, India had passed its WMD Act in May 2005, changing the course of its nuclear history.
But even as the Indian media was debating the intent and implications of these two events at the UN Security Council, two equally significant conferences were held in New Delhi. One was the three-day International Conference on ‘Peaceful Uses of Atomic Energy-2009, inaugurated by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh September 29. Dr Singh chose this platform to herald his vision of increasing India’s nuclear-power by one-hundred times over the next 40 years i.e. to raise it from about 4,000 MW today to 470,000 MW by 2050.
In doing so he reposed his faith in indigenous nuclear know-how and technologies, especially Dr Homi Bhaba’s visions of three level fuel cycle which would enable India to use its enormous reserves of thorium to ensure relative autonomy for India’s nuclear industry. More interestingly, he not only sought to press on India’s commitment to evolve sustainable and climate friendly energy strategies by making nuclear power generation central to it, he also sought to address the discourse of western powers and whet the appetite of their business lobbies. This marks a fundamental shift from India’s conventional strategy of taking a high-moral ground on disarmament and/or raising the bogey against the “discriminatory western sponsored nonproliferation regimes” to doing business in a more pragmatic fashion.
Organized by Department of Atomic Energy (DAE) to commemorate the birth centenary of the father of Indian nuclear science, Homi Jahangir Bhaba, this conference also hosted El Baradei – Director General of International Atomic Energy Agency – who was conferred the 2008 Indira Gandhi Prize for Peace, Disarmament and Development. But while El Baradei praised India’s disarmament credentials and urged New Delhi to take the lead, he also suggested that India may be able to sign the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) if not NPT in the near future.
This comment echoed the views of Gareth Evans – former foreign minister of Australia – who was in New Delhi as the Co-Chair of International Commission on Nuclear Nonproliferation and Disarmament (ICNND) that also held a weekend of parleys with South Asia’s strategic community.
The ICNND meeting was an apt climax to the nuclear humming and fuming taking place at the time. Chaired jointly by the two of the closest friends of the United States – Australia and Japan – the commission was set up in June last year to “reinvigorate international efforts on nuclear non-proliferation and disarmament” before the May 2010 NPT Review Conference.
However, instead of pious ‘global zero’ paradigms or efforts to eliminate nuclear weapons from earth, it focused primarily on India-Pakistan polemics. So while the conference press release underlined that support from India would be “vital to global efforts to stem proliferation” of nuclear weapons, the subtext could be seen in the extensive press coverage and delegate media bytes, where the basic refrain was that India will never be allowed to enter NPT as a nuclear weapon state. This was backed up with veiled warnings on how entertaining any thoughts on further nuclear tests could prove extremely costly.
As India moves from victimhood to a stakeholder profile in the nuclear sweepstakes, several fundamentals need to change as well.
To begin with, the subtle changes in our nuclear strategy need to trickle-down from the leadership and sync-in with India’s rather small strategic community. This disconnect was obvious last month when prime minister heralded his new vision while India’s strategic warriors continued to press old slogans. Either they did not comprehend that variables of India’s nuclear trade unionism have changed for long, or find it tough to comply with this subtle change in India’s disarmament diplomacy. Perhaps it was also a case of difficulty to publicly undermine our longstanding USP (unique selling point) of being the rebel, alas often unsolicited.
But unless India’s strategic community backs this vision of change it will be difficult for change to maximize India’s advantages or even to sustain it vigour. Moreover, this has to be done with care as there will always be different voices which will seek to dilute our position on such a critical juncture of change. Not to forget that promise of change was recently recognized strong enough by the Nobel peace prize committee that conferred this years award on US President.
Also read: Is this India's newest nuke bomb factory? | Time to test our nuclear deterrence | Will not join NPT as non-nuclear weapon state: India
(Prof. Swaran Singh, is Professor of Diplomacy and Disarmament School of International Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi.)
