Bhaskar Roy
In a new shift in strategy, China has sought to isolate the Dalai Lama internationally and crack down hard on the pro-Dalai Lama elements inside China to break their resolve for greater autonomy.
From the beginning of November, the Chinese decided to separate the Dalai Lama from the Indian government. This came after Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s meeting with Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao on October 24 in the HUA Hin, Thailand on the sidelines of the ASEAN summit.
Dr. Manmohan Singh made it quite clear that he and the people of India were no longer in the mood to entertain the Chinese media and official polemics on two issues.
One was on the status of Arunachal Pradesh. It was India’s sovereign territory and China’s belligerence on Indian leaders’ visits to that state was not acceptable.
The other was that the Dalai Lama was an honoured guest in India, he was not allowed to indulge in politics in India, and he was free to travel anywhere in India. India has a policy and laws on refugees and they have to conduct themselves within the boundaries of the law.
On his return to China, Wen Jiabao apparently brought this up in the Communist Party Politburo Standing Committee, the highest decision making body in China. It’s decision, according to recent Chinese behaviour, is to concentrate on berating the Dalai Lama and to delude the Indians with surprising warmth.
The Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman, Ma Zhaoxu, while reasserting (November 4) their opposition to the Dalai Lama’s visit to Arunachal Pradesh on November 8, charged him with sowing discord between China and India.
The next day, China’s most authentic mouthpiece, the People’s Daily, carried a short commentary, which used words of affectionate understanding which was perhaps not even heard during the “Bhai-Bhai” days of the early 1950s.
It described the Dr. Manmohan Singh - Wen Jiabao meeting as a “gentle breeze (that) cleared all past suspicion and misunderstandings”. The commentary spoke of agreement to maintain peace and friendly environment in border areas, resolving the border issue in line of mutual interests, the growing trade between the two countries, and asked the media on both sides to play a healthy role.
The Chinese did not just wake up one morning with a sudden change of heart. They assessed the bilateral situation very closely and came to the conclusion that the mindset in India had undergone a quiet change.
The Chinese propaganda machinery was quite content with the understanding that they had succeeded in demoralising India with their berating tactics and the concocted version of the 1962 war.
This was true till recently even among the Indian armed forces. Where they miscalculated was that too much change had taken place in India and its development, and awareness about China had grown. The Chinese are still to understand and appreciate how a democracy like India works, where the people are supreme and the free media is the vehicle for the people’s aspirations.
Except for this strategic shift, given these considerations, China’s basic policy on India has shown no signs of change. It anything, they have stepped up countering India in the regional and international perspective.
China’s problem with the Dalai Lama and the Tibetan movement has been compounded by the restiveness of the Muslim Uighurs of Xinjiang-Uighur Autonomous Region (XAR) bordering the largely Muslim Central Asian states.
The July 5 anti-Han Chinese demonstrations in Urumqi, the capital of XAR triggered an extreme Chinese reaction. Several so-called Uighur ring leaders have been sentenced to death, and a severe police crackdown on the Uighurs has been ordered by Beijing.
The Chinese authorities still depend on the gun, literally, to resolve an issue. As the saying goes, they use a hammer to kill a fly, which only alienates people, not win them over. The Uighur independence movement for East Turkistan (as they call XAR) had low support internationally. But the China policy of extermination has changed that, and thrown up an Uighur leader in Ms. Rebiya Kadeer. She was an Uighur businesswoman, who was jailed for six years for alleged anti-state activities. She was finally expelled from China on western intervention. But blaming her for all ills in XAR has given her an international acceptance and profile.
The Chinese authorities hold the Dalai Lama responsible for encouraging movements like that of the Uighurs. Dissidents inside China are beginning to fault Beijing’s handling of the Tibetan issue. Beijing even tried to implicate the Dalai Lama in the Uighur movement, but failed.
The March 2008 Lhasa riots which spread to Tibetan counties outside Tibet Autonomous Region (TAR), the Chinese truncated version of the original Tibet, gave a startling education to the Beijing authorities. They found that despite their suppression attempts on the one hand and development on the other, they had failed to win the hearts and minds of the Tibetans.
Anti-China demonstrations in Lhasa were generally localized among the Buddhist monks and nuns. But on this occasion lay Tibetans took a leading role. Worse, some Tibetan officials in the local government in Tibet, who are believed to have been won over by the Chinese, also supported the anti-China movement. The Chinese administrative action was to sentence four Tibetans to death, two of whom were executed in the third week of October.
Unfortunately, the Chinese authorities are unwilling to admit the faults in their Tibet policy. A group of Chinese researchers who had formed an NGO in Beijing to study such problems, published a report earlier this year to show where the Tibet policy had gone wrong and how it can be repaired. The report was a non-partisan empirical research, giving suggestions to the government. Instead of taking positive cognizance of the report, the NGO was banned.
The Chinese had no problems when the Dalai Lama, during his 2004 visit to Tawang, Arunachal Pradesh, spoke about the region as old South Tibet in the context of his birth place, which is now outside TAR, as northern Tibet.
The Chinese authorities interpreted this as the Dalai Lama’s endorsement of China’s claims that the MacMahon Line was illegal, and Tawang and Arunachal Pradesh were historically a part of Tibet and, therefore, China’s.
But when in 2007, the Dalai Lama clarified his position that the 1914 Shimla Agreement drawing the MacMahon Line to demarcate the Tibet-India border was signed by the independent government of Tibet, the Chinese saw a threat.
The Chinese claim that Beijing’s Amban or Ambassador in Lhasa, who was involved in the Shimla Agreement did not sign but only initialled the document, means China did not accept the MacMahon Line. But the truth from this fact, as Mao Zedong famously wrote at the Yenan caves, is that the Chinese Ambassador’s role was only in the demarcation between China and Tibet.
The Chinese are acutely concerned that the present 14th Dalai Lama’s position not only negates the Chinese claim on Arunachal Pradesh, but also questions the legality of Chinese sovereignty over Tibet. This, they feel, could actually raise questions on China’s annexation of XAR also.
The Chinese must understand that the international community and the Dalai Lama no longer oppose China’s claim on Tibet. The Dalai Lama’s position is genuine autonomy for Tibet and the Tibetans in order to preserve their language, culture, religion and traditions within the Chinese constitution.
He perfectly understands that the Tibetans can develop and grow with China. But the Chinese, who continue to smell a rat, are unwilling to accept the Dalai Lama’s position and continue to abuse the Tibetans.
The Chinese authorities have taken recourse to their economic clout to isolate the Dalai Lama. They made the French President Nicholas Sarkozy bend on this issue using economic instruments. Now they claim the US President Barack Obama gave in and declined to meet the Dalai Lama before his November visit to China in deference to China’s importance to the USA.
But the Chinese are mistaken in their belief that they can erode the Dalai Lama’s support internationally.
Although the Chinese have established a better relationship with Japan’s new DJP government of Prime Minister Hayatomo, this did not interfere with the Dalai Lama’s visit to Japan under the new government. The Dalai Lama also visited Taiwan under the new China-friendly government of President Ma Ying-Jeo.
The Dalai Lama had ensured that the Tibetan movement did not become more militant. But after he passes away the question is up in the air. Does China plan to exterminate the Tibetan race inside China? That is the question the world is going to ask.
The question is: how long will China wear the India-friendly mask? Not far too long, to be sure. Following the Dalai Lama’s arrival in Tawang on November 8 and reiteration that Arunachal Pradesh was part of India, Beijing showed cracks in the mask. Quoting Chinese strategic expert Hu Shisheng, the People’s Daily (Nov. 08) said the Dalai Lama may have been pressured by India to visit Tawang to create an anti-China sentiment among the people of this bordering region which make China’s position on the border negotiations difficult. Hu Shisheng also warned that India may have forgotten the lessons of 1962.
Bhaskar Roy,who retired recently as a senior government official with decades ofnational and international experience, is an expert on internationalrelations and Indian strategic interests. Also read: Column: Calling China's Bluff | Nervous China may attack India by 2012 | China: Denial and deception | More Bhaskar Roy columns
