Economists predict economic rebound in China

Last Updated: Sun, Nov 04, 2012 06:20 hrs

Beijing, Nov 4 (IANS) Economists quizzed for a survey have cautioned against external and policy risks that may ruin a widely expected pick-up in China's growth in the last quarter of 2012.

Forecasts for the economy's fourth-quarter growth made recently by 40 economists from domestic and foreign financial institutions averaged 7.7 percent, according to survey results released by Securities Market Weekly.

Growth in the world's second-largest economy declined to 7.4 percent in the third quarter, as exports dropped sharply on weak external market and the government tightened its policies to cap the runaway property market, reported Xinhua.

Nevertheless, the economists' projected figure would send the economy's full-year growth rate for 2012 to 7.7 percent, exceeding the government target of 7.5 percent.

Respondents to the survey also predicted the fourth quarter would see higher growth rates for fixed-asset investment, retail sales and exports, the three key growth drivers.

In spite of the upbeat sentiment, they warned that the deteriorating external environment, inadequate domestic policy support and worsening financial status of local governments and enterprises are the three major risks for the economy.

The economists were generally cautious toward recent easing policies introduced in economies such as the European Union and the US, as effects of previous easing have fallen short of expectations.

Instead of boosting jobs, monetary easing will continue to hike their fiscal stress, while putting pressure on China's exports, according to Zhu Haibin from J.P. Morgan China, one of the 40 economists surveyed by Securities Market Weekly.

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