Is the Osama killing a success or a failure?

Now that the dust has settled on the whole Osama bin Laden capture and killing issue, a key question to be asked is: Does this make any real difference to the world at all? Is the world safer? Will there be lesser attacks now? Or will it actually make things worse?

If Osama had been captured within months of 9/11, it would have been truly sensational. Even achieving that towards the end of George W Bush's first term would have been at par with America's muscle power and vast intelligence network.

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But doing so after 10 years in a vastly changed world environment is not the same thing. For one, Osama is no longer the towering and influential person he was ten odd years ago. Many people had considered him already dead anyway.

Secondly, Al-Qaeda no longer seems to be a force. There had been many daring attacks leading to 9/11. But in the last few years, they have been unable to make any serious headway. In fact, other terror groups seem to be posing a far greater threat and are more active.

The world order has also changed a great deal and this issue now largely seems irrelevant in the new Arab world. Regimes are changing fast and democracy and bread seem to be the new mantras there. Nobody cares about America's War on Terrorism there.

Even India is more worried about other terrorist groups. Europe is more worried about bailouts. And so on...

Pakistan's tomfoolery and its billions

Depending on which reports you read, Osama has been living in Pakistan from either 2003 or 2005. It is quite difficult to understand how absolutely no Pakistani authorities were unaware of a presence of 6-8 years.

If you consider being lied to for almost a decade and being suckered into giving billions of dollars before getting a success that would have happened in 2003 if your best friend was actually with you, then America has spectacularly succeeded.

If the US and Pak searched in Afghanistan for 10 years and got their target, then it would make sense. To find Osama in "plain sight" next to the Pakistan Military Academy has got to be one of CIA's biggest failures, no matter which way you look at it.

Will it even affect Obama's re-election?

The move looks like it won't even help President Barack Obama's re-election. His approval ratings went from a low 46 to a mediocre 57. It can come back to 46 with even one bad week.

America is clearly not impressed.

After the Gulf War of 1991, the then President George Bush's approval ratings were in the 80s. He still lost in the next elections.

Also look at it another way. Al-Qaeda is nowhere near the excesses of the Nazi party. Yet the surviving members were put on trial after World War 2.

Osama, on the other hand, was wanted "Dead or Alive". But as details of the operation are coming out, it is clear that the special team could have captured Osama alive had they so wished. They didn't. He was wanted "Dead and only dead".

The irony of it all: The winner of the Nobel Prize for Peace man wanted nothing short of an assassination!

The whole issue was also handled very poorly.

Pakistan's integrity was breached, showing that America treats its enemies and friends just the same.
First Osama was armed. Then he wasn't. First Obama watched the live feed. Then he didn't.

Why so many contradictions?

Now they are not releasing his photos. Why? The very fact of killing and dumping Osama's body in the ocean is enough provocation, if terrorists really want to take revenge.

America clearly doesn't believe in taking the rest of the world into confidence.

It speaks and expects the rest of the world to merely nod in approval.

Will it make it much worse?

Another thing to be asked is, will it make things much worse. Will Al-Qaeda regroup and take revenge? One hopes not!

Another worrying factor is the effect on India.

India's Independence led to the Kashmir war in 1948. Lal Bahadur Shastri's perceived weakness led to the 1965 war. The East Pakistan violence led to the 1971 war. Rajiv Gandhi's belligerence led to the 1986 Siachen conflict. Pokharan II ultimately resulted in the 1999 Kargil War.

The same is the case with many terrorist blasts carried out in India at the behest of Pakistan.

Right now Pakistan's credibility is at rock bottom. It is being squeezed by America as it has never been done before. At such times it usually attempts a misadventure against India.

India will have to be very careful and defend itself extra carefully. America could be least bothered!

The author is a Bangalore-based journalist and blogger.
He blogs at http://sunilrajguru.com/

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The author is a Bangalore-based journalist and blogger. He blogs at http://sunilrajguru.com/