Kanimozhi arrest: Political fallout for the DMK-Congress Alliance

Chennai: The 2G scam is spreading faster than most viral diseases and it is threatening to take down everyone in contact with it.

The Congress party is the most affected in a broader sense. Their continued association with the DMK is being widely seen as their complicity in the scam. The Congress might now hope to free itself from the DMK and reach some sort of agreement with the AIADMK and Jayalalithaa.

While the DMK side is probably angry, they might not want to let go of their role in the central government for the sake of Kanimozhi.

But it is a catch-22 for both sides involved.

With Jaganmohan Reddy fracturing the party base in Andhra, the BJP still strong in Karnataka and the poor showing in the recent state polls in the Tamil Nadu the Congress faces the real possibility of ending up with no role in South India.

The DMK itself, which probably hoped that the UPA would put central pressure on the CBI to allow bail for Kanimozhi, now faces a distinct choice. Emotionally they might feel breaking all ties with the Congress for 'letting them down'. But a cooler evaluation will probably show that the DMK, with an equally bad performance in the state polls, should not abandon its alliance very easily.

But the DMK faces a tougher call than the Congress. While the Congress can take an opportunistic jump into Jayalalithaa's camp the DMK literally has no where to go.

Even during the pre-poll stages when the DMK had a very public fallout with the Congress regarding seat-sharing, it was the DMK that blinked first and surrendered to the Congress demands for 63 seats.

In all probability the DMK would prefer to stay in the alliance, even as the Congress would prefer to be free of it.

While it is mostly assumed that the Congress was sinking with the DMK several groups are taking the position that in fact the Congress derailed the alliance through it's own actions.

Since the Congress insisted on 63 seats in the State polls but won only 5 of them, these seats were denied to the DMK as well, weakening their position in their home state for the sake of a Central alliance.

Meanwhile the DMK has not offered any statements or reactions to the judgement. The Congress announced that the matter would have no bearing on the alliance.

The Congress reaction was very cold and appeared to be aimed towards clamping down on media speculation until they could hold more comprehensive talks with the DMK. The Congress also distanced itself from any speculation that it would provide any assistance or support to the DMK. The Congress made it clear that the DMK would have to fight its legal battles alone.

Read More:

Kanimozhi, Sharad Kumar in custody after bail denied

Delhi Court orders DMK MP Kanimozhi's arrest

DMK leaders take stock of Kanimozhi's bail plea rejection