Bengaluru: The Congress is likely to emerge as the single largest party in the crucial Karnataka Assembly elections to be held next month but will fall short of an absolute majority, the India Today Group-Karvy Insights opinion poll has found.According to India Today-Karvy opinion polls survey, the Congress is expected to win 90-101 seats, well short of majority target of 112. The BJP may win 78-86 seats, nearly double to its last tally in 2013, while JD(S) is expected to win 34-43 seats and may play a role of kingmaker in the state.
Apart from seats tally, the important thing to note in the opinion polls is the vote share percentage. The difference of vote share between Congress and BJP is just 2 percent and this can play a big role in the elections as even the minor vote swing from one party to other may lead to big change in the final tally. The opinion poll predicts a 37% vote share to Congress, while the BJP is expected to garner 35% vote share. In 2013 state elections, Congress had won 122 seats; BJP 40 and JD(S) 40.