Maybe it's us and not the UPA that has changed!

The UPA government from 2004-09 (UPA1) was pretty shaky. It had very less Lok Sabha seats and yet seemed to have gracefully completed its term. In 2009, it came back as UPA2 stronger, with more seats and virtually flattening the opposition.

But it now seems to be in a bigger mess than it ever was. How did that happen?

There is one way of looking at this problem. That is that the UPA has been the same from 2004-11. It is only the circumstances, surroundings and opponents that have changed, making the very same efficient people of 2004-09 look so inefficient in 2009-11.

Let me explain…

Right to Information: The RTI was a 1990s movement that culminated in many states adopting laws even before the UPA came to power. But to its credit, the Central Government turned it into an Act in 2005.

However, now this very Act has come back to haunt UPA2 in more ways than one. Revelations are affecting everything right from 2G to CWG. Forget the big things, there are even day-to-day niggles. Lok Sabha speaker Meira Kumar’s eviction notices and Rs 2 crore dues, foul-play in the new Rupee symbol, bureaucratic paralysis… there’s absolutely no shortage of RTI-induced troubles.

Engaging Civil Society: The National Advisory Council was set up in 2004 trying to tap the best of India’s civil society, bureaucracy and academia. It was immediately lauded for the RTI Act as mentioned above and Mahatma Gandhi NREGA as mentioned below.

However, of late even that has come apart. Arvind Kejriwal was part of the Civil Society experiment and ultimately joined hands with Anna Hazare and the rest of the team to bring the government on its knees over the Lokpal issue. NAC member Aruna Roy is openly criticizing the government.

The NAC’s Communal Bill received such flak, that protests against the body are getting louder and louder.

Nuclear Power: During UPA1, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh put the government on the line over the Nuclear Deal with the US. While initially it was seen as risky, the PM emerged triumphant and seemed to have secured India’s future in power reliance.

Now in UPA2, protests against nuclear plants are getting more and more belligerent with Kudankulam in Tamil Nadu serving as a flash point. Now suddenly India’s whole nuclear programme is under a cloud.

Cash-for-Votes: When the cash-for-votes scandal happened in UPA1, most of India was amused and some even appreciated the political acumen of the PM. The incident was brushed aside. The PM was voted back with a greater majority.

The courts decided to re-open the case during UPA2 and now it no longer looks harmless when placed next to the multitude of scams that are emerging with great regularity.

NREGA: When the National Rural Employment Guarantee Act came, it was seen as a masterstroke. Here was one scheme that reached the poor of India and it went very far in the world of vote bank politics.

However things are fast changing now. The NREGA kitty is steadily increasing even as growth is slowing down. Add inflation and economy to the equation and the component of NREGA funds in the GDP is reaching alarming proportions. It is being seen as nothing but an expensive dole now.
The tragedy for the Congress is that, now NREGA may no longer secure votes in the 2014 general elections. Every fresh idea becomes stale in the end.

Triumvirate at the Top: Sonia Gandhi was an aloof behind the scenes player. Manmohan Singh was squeaky clean when he took office. Rahul Gandhi entered politics in 2004 and the Congress came to power. He toured the country in 2009 and the party’s mandate increased. Rahul was seen as a lucky mascot.

However this triumvirate has fallen apart in UPA2. Sonia’s mystery illness is doing her image no good. She was absent during the crucial Lokpal imbroglio and RTI applications are trying to find out more about her while the enfant terrible of Indian politics Subramanian Swamy is trying to drag her family into the 2G scam.

After seven years at the top, Manmohan looks jaded and tainted by the endless scams he has presided over.

As for Rahul, the mystique is slowly vanishing. The more he speaks, the less sure are people of his ability to lead the nation.

In UPA1, the Left was seen as a troublesome, but was still managed. This time around, the two allies of DMK and TMC seemed much more stable. But now the DMK finds its key central ministers facing corruption charges.

As far as Mamata is concerned, she was alright as long as she was in the Opposition. But now she’s become Chief Minister, she’s become more confrontational. Examples are the Teesta water accord and her attitude towards petrol prices and FDI in retail.

The Congress could still face more problems from their key allies.

To be fair, when it comes to the general economy, it’s all cyclic. Economic downturns come and go and some politicians bear the brunt and others reap the fruits.

Again, it’s not that the number of scams is increasing, but more and more are being exposed. In fact, a lot of the scams had their seeds in UPA1 itself and are coming to light now for a variety of reasons in UPA2.

The only thing that really changed was that the Congress leaders had become much more arrogant after 2009, evidently shown in the force used against Baba Ramdev and the over the top language used against Anna Hazare.

But the humbling process has begun again and it is anybody’s guess how the next three years will pan out before the next general elections.

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The author is a Bangalore-based journalist and blogger. He blogs at http://sunilrajguru.com/