US President Barack Obama will return for a second term, feels American political historian Dr. Allan J. Lichtman.
Lichtman was in Kolkata on Tuesday to make a presentation on "The Keys to the White House" at a programme organized by the American Center in association with Aspen Institute India (Kolkata Chapter) at the Oberoi Grand Hotel.
According to Lichtman's Keys theory, Obama will return for a second term.
When asked what makes him zero on Obama´s return, he said: "The fact that it is based on the way American people actually choose their president; it's not based on the idea that the American people are swayed by what's going on in the campaign. They look at the big picture what's going on in the country and that would make the system work."
"Obama is easily going to win as there is no third party. He kept the country calm and he is not into any big scandal," he said.
Lichtman is a professor of history and formerly chair of the Department of History at American University in Washington, D.C.
He received his PhD from Harvard University.
His book The Keys to the White House is a system for predicting the popular vote result of U.S. presidential elections, based on the theory of pragmatic voting.
America's electorate, according to this theory, chooses a president, not according to events of the campaign, but according to how well the party in control of the White House has governed the country.
The "Keys" system has forecast the popular vote winner of all seven presidential elections from 1984 to 2008, usually months or even years prior to the Election Day.
America will vote to elect their 45th President this November.
(Reporting by Tania Roy)