OPEC oil output falls from 17-month high

OPEC crude oil supply is expected to fall in June from the 17-month high reached in May because of lower supplies from Iraq, Angola and Nigeria, a Reuters survey showed on Tuesday.

Supply from the 11 members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries with output targets, all except Iraq, has averaged 26.75 million barrels per day (bpd) this month, down from 26.90 million bpd in May, according to the survey of oil firms, OPEC officials and analysts.

The decline mainly reflects output disruption in Nigeria rather than an OPEC effort to improve adherence to output targets, which has been falling since 2009. Analysts say higher compliance is unlikely without a darkening of the economic outlook and lower prices.

"The oil price is above the $70 Saudi floor, so for now, the cartel will stay put," said Harry Tchilinguirian at BNP Paribas.

"The conscious effort will come if the economic data flow were to disappoint."

OPEC, source of more than a third of the world's oil, has left its output ceiling unchanged for more than a year since announcing a record supply curb of 4.2 million bpd in December 2008 to combat lower demand and prices.

Supply from the OPEC-11 is 1.91 million bpd higher in June than their target of 24.84 million bpd, the survey found, meaning they achieved 2.29 million bpd of the promised curbs.

That left compliance at 55 percent, up 4 percentage points from May. It peaked at 81 percent in April and March 2009, according to Reuters estimates. With two days left of June, the final figures for the month may change.

For a graphic showing OPEC's compliance with supply curbs according to Reuters surveys and the oil price, click here: http://graphics.thomsonreuters.com/10/OIL_OPCOM0610.gif

Total OPEC supply including Iraq is down 190,000 bpd at 29.10 million bpd, the survey found. May's total was the highest since December 2008 according to Reuters estimates.

NIGERIA, ANGOLA

Oil prices fell 3 percent to below $76 per barrel on Tuesday and stock markets slumped on renewed worries over euro zone debt.

Nigerian supply declined because of lower exports of crude grades including Qua Iboe, which has been under force majeure since May following a pipeline leak.

Eight 950,000-barrel cargoes of Qua Iboe crude have shipped in June, according to loading scheduled and industry sources, less than the 13 that had been originally scheduled.

Angolan supply slipped by 50,000 bpd to 1.83 million bpd.

The country remains OPEC's least compliant member in absolute terms, pumping 310,000 bpd more than the figure widely believed to be its OPEC target.

Iraq's supply declined because of lower shipments of Kirkuk crude from the country's north, which offset an increase in exports from Basra in the south.

Of the remaining members subject to output targets, top producer Saudi Arabia held supply steady at 8.28 million bpd, the survey found. The was no sign of output change from Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates.

The three core Gulf members are still showing among the highest rates of compliance.

Following is output in millions of barrels per day.

June May Implied* Implied

output output cut target

Algeria 1.25 1.25 0.2 1.2

Angola 1.83 1.88 0.24 1.52**

Ecuador 0.47 0.47 0.07 0.43

Iran 3.60 3.61 0.56 3.34

Kuwait 2.30 2.30 0.37 2.22

Libya 1.57 1.56 0.25 1.47

Nigeria 2.05 2.17 0.32 1.67

Qatar 0.82 0.81 0.12 0.73

Saudi Arabia 8.28 8.28 1.32 8.05

UAE 2.31 2.31 0.38 2.22

Venezuela 2.27 2.26 0.36 1.99

OPEC 11 26.75 26.90 4.2 24.84

Iraq 2.35 2.39

TOTAL OPEC 29.10 29.29

Overproduction 1.91 2.06

Cut achieved 2.29 2.14

Compliance 55 pct 51 pct

* Includes cut of 2.2 million bpd starting from Jan. 1, 2009 and 2 million bpd of previously agreed curbs, which remain in effect. The breakdown comes from an OPEC document obtained by Reuters during the group's December 2008 meeting and was not officially released by OPEC.

** Angola says its target is 1.656 million bpd. OPEC has not clarified whether this or 1.52 million bpd is Angola's target.

OPEC quotas exclude condensate and natural gas liquids and apply to supply rather than wellhead output, defined to exclude movements to, but not sales from, storage. Saudi and Kuwaiti data includes Neutral Zone.

Saudi data excludes oil produced for Bahrain. Venezuelan data includes upgraded synthetic oil. Nigerian output includes the Agbami stream and excludes Oso and Akpo.

(Reporting by Alex Lawler; Editing by Anthony Barker and Sue Thomas)

OPEC oil output falls from 17-month high - survey