Bhaskar Roy, who retired recently as a senior government official with decades of national and international experience, is an expert on international relations and Indian strategic interests.
The March 3 terrorist attack on the Sri Lankan cricket team has revealed a serious ailment in the Pakistani intelligence security apparatus. Had it been an Indian cricket team or a team from a Western nation, it would have been more understandable. But Sri Lanka has been a close friend of Pakistan’s, and no jihadi organisation has ever pointed a finger at Colombo. In fact, the Pakistan defence establishment has been assisting Sri Lanka in its fight against the LTTE.
We all dived to the floor to take cover: Jayawardene
This attack, therefore, raised questions as to whether it was the Al-qaeda and Taliban kind of jihadis who were resposnsible, or it was the work of strong and rabid sections within Pakistan’s intelligence and security establishment who were waging a war against the state for their own political, strategic and ideological reasons.
The ruling Pakistani political establishment, apparently confused by the incident found the easiest way out – blame India. It was said immediately that India’s foreign intelligence organisation, the R&AW, had staged the attack to spoil Pak-Sri Lanka relations. A purported Punjab CID report was handed over to the press saying they had source information that the R&AW had planned to attack the Sri Lankan cricketers either on their way to the stadium or at their hotel. One federal Minister even said that weapons left behind by the attackers had Indian ordnance factory markings, and the dry rations carried by the terrorists were manufactured in India.
‘Enemies of Pakistan behind Lahore strike’
But the charade could not last long because of exposures by private Pakistani media and video footage shown by the private television channel Geo TV, which had also exposed through investigative journalism, that Kasab, the lone survivor of the Mumbai 26/11 terror attack, was a Pak citizen.
Most significantly, Pakistani investigative agencies leaked to the media that the attack was aimed at taking some of the Sri Lankan cricket team members hostage to seek the release of Lashkar-e-Toiba (LET) leaders taken into custody by the Federal Investigative Agency (FIA) of Pakistan for their complicity in the Mumbai carnage. The amount of arms, ammunition, explosives and the dry rations and water discarded by two of the terrorists when their mission failed supports these reports.
‘Al Qaeda plus affiliates behind Lahore attack’
Pakistani print and television media reports, not challenged by the authorities, clearly say that it was a well planned inside job. The Sri Lankan team bus was diverted to the chosen route of the terrorists in the last minute on the basis of an unidentified phone call. The attackers melted away unchallenged even by a patrolling police vehicle.
An exasperated Pakistani media, reflecting the concerns of the civil society, is now asking how long will the country’s power center continue to blame India and remain in denial of the terrorists who are now set to devour the country. The dearth of credibility of the Pakistani establishment is not only the talk of the international community, but of Pakistan itself.
The Pakistani civil society reposed their faith in the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) civilian government led by President Asif Ali Zardari to redeem them from the abyss of terrorism and jihadi culture. But the shortsighted Zardari appears to be more interested in sabotaging the law and the judicial system and neutralising Nawaz Sharif and his brother Shabaz Sharif – his political opponents. In the course of which, he is falling into the hands of different forces that have little or no interest in a stable and democratic Pakistan that can concentrate on economic and social development.
Chidambaram rubbishes Indian link to Lahore attack
The LeT, like the Jaish-e-Mohammad (JEI), the Harkat-ul-Jehad at-Islamic (HUJI), the Laskar-e-Janghvi (JEI) and others were created by the ISI to fight in Kashmir, Afghanistan and even in Bangladesh. Many of them have played truant from the ISI at some point or the other, but not the LeT.
The Pakistani army is the mentor and controller of the ISI as events in the last one year has been established by the Pakistani media. General Pervez Musharraf, former president and concurrently chief of the Pakistan Army, could initiate things with swift moves. However, despite opening gambits, which appeared quite brilliant, his moves were found lacking in strategic vision for an end game. For instance, he moved his troops into Kargil silently like a commando operation, but then was at a loss as to what to do next. Similar was his approach in tackling terrorists. He shook hands with and partnered them on the one side, and sporadically moved against them on the other. The Pakistani army’s obsession to regard India as an enemy and fight it has both confused and confounded them. The politicians aided and abetted them, to safeguard their own interests.
In his recent book 'The inheritance,' New York Times correspondent David E Sanger relates a meeting between the Director of the US National Intelligence, Mike Maconnell and a group of senior Pakistani army officers in Islamabad in late May 2008. The Pakistani officer briefing Maconnell and his team made two points — “The overwhelming enemy is India,” and “when the Americans pull out of Afghanistan India would move in and, therefore, Pakistan needs the Taliban to have a friendly government in Afghanistan.”
When Pakistani Prime Minister Yusaf Raza Gilani visited Washington last year, President Bush and CIA Director Mike Hayden presented him with evidence that elements in the ISI were tipping off the Taliban about impending attacks by the Americans and Pakistani army. The ISI was sharing actionable intelligence provided by the CIA with the targets. There was sabotage from within the Pakistani establishment and this phenomenon could, at least partially, answer some questions over the Lahore attack.
Investigations into the Mumbai terrorist attacks have eventually implicated the JEI, forcing Pakistan finally to take some proforma action and arrest six LeT terrorists. Telephone intercepts between the Mumbai terrorists and their handlers in Pakistan reveal involvement of Pakistani military officers from the communication unit, and clearly suggest an ISI mastermind. This is not acceptable to either the ISI or the army. The incident needs to be further complicated and fudged.
The strategy of the Lahore attack did not work out as planned. The initial charge against the Indian intelligence agency, R&AW, did not stick. Too many agencies across the world are watching Pakistan closely. The end game was not well thought out.
Pak identifies mastermind of Lahore attack
The next step that Pakistan’s state actors are going take is to ensure that the real perpetrators behind the Lahore attack are not revealed. The other move would be to see that the investigations in Pakistan into the Mumbai attack is not allowed to go forward on flimsy excuses like non-co-operation from India. This process has already started.
So, where is the real war against terrorism heading to? If the Pak military-intelligence establishment desires friendly relations with the Taliban, it will have to carry the Al-qaeda baggage too. On the other hand, if Washington presumes that the Al-qaeda will crumble with the elimination of Osama bin Laden and Ayman Al Zawahari, it is sadly mistaken, for both the Al-qaeda and the Taliban do not regard themselves as terrorists; they are fighting a religious ideological war, and this conviction has spread far in the Muslim world.
It is not outside the realm of reality that the US will seek to make a compromise eventually with what they would call the “moderate Taliban,” something that is nothing but a figment of imagination. Then they could withdraw from this troubled region and concentrate on homeland security.
What happens then to Pakistan and its neighbouring region?
The views expressed in the column are the author’s and not of Sify.com
