Political parties on test in TN

It is after some decades that the major parties in Tamil Nadu are contesting the local body elections in the State virtually on their own -- they get an opportunity to know where they stand in every single village or town, while the small parties have grabbed the chance to pick up a few seats in the villages and prove their strength with an eye on fresh alliances.

While traditionally, the local body polls have favoured the ruling party or alliance and the AIADMK is sitting pretty, the beleaguered DMK has got a breather in the run-up to the October 17 and October 19 polls thanks to the break-up of the AIADMK-led alliance.

The opposition DMK believes it has a window of opportunity in view of the AIADMK and its May allies like the DMDK, CPM and CPI parting ways. DMK sources say the party could bounce back and pick up nearly 30 per cent of the seats.

With nearly 1.5 lakh posts up for grabs in the state, the DMK, routed in the Assembly elections, could have a face-saving performance now.

The collapse of alliances in Tamil Nadu

On the other hand, the AIADMK could pick up nearly 60 per cent of the seats and is eyeing the ten Mayoral posts, in particular, to establish a political stronghold in Tamil Nadu and crush the opposition. AIADMK sources say the strong anti-DMK trend continues to prevail even five months after the Assembly elections, and a defeat for the DMK is certain.

The DMK is not so much worried about the AIADMK winning two-thirds of the seats in Tamil Nadu. It views the elections as a matter of survival, since most of its top leaders are facing cases relating to land grab or assets, and some of them are in prison.

A strong performance by the DMK could force the ruling AIADMK to slow down its operations against the DMK men, and hopefully Karunanidhi and his close family members may be spared from Government or police action. That is the best-case scenario for the DMK.

The AIADMK, meanwhile, wants the roller-coaster ride of the May elections to continue, to grab as many seats as possible at every level including Town and Village Panchayats, and deny the opposition a foot-hold.

It also uses the opportunity to provide tickets to a large number of its loyalists and give them important positions on their home turf. These elected representatives would make it easier for the AIADMK to push through its welfare schemes and development programmes and keep far ahead of its rivals.

The Congress continues to drift in the absence of a strong leadership but is hopeful of doing well in southern Tamil Nadu.

As for the DMDK, the rift in the AIADMK-camp should actually be seen as a blessing in disguise and help it consolidate the gains made in May and look to project itself as an alternative to the AIADMK, with an eye on the 2016 Assembly elections.

Having secured over 8 and 10 per cent respectively in the 2006 Assembly and 2009 Lok Sabha elections on its own, it would like to improve on that performance. Having a few councilors and panchayat presidents in the state could provide just the foundation Vijayakanth requires to take his party forward, without the support of the AIADMK.

The local body elections therefore come as a Godsend for parties other than the AIADMK to assess their strengths and weaknesses in every polling booth of the State, identify good candidates and thereafter work on an elaborate plan to revitalize their parties.

A problem for the major parties is the presence of some rebels in some areas as also the possible impact of candidates with a degree of acceptability among the electorate cutting across party lines. Even Independents could be a thorn in the flesh for the major parties in some areas.

Thus, the election results could throw up a few surprises in some areas, though trends on party lines will prevail by and large across the state.