Revolution in Egypt? Not again!

The second revolution, in 1952, led to the abolition of monarchy and the establishment of a republic in 1953. The king was replaced by a general. The general was replaced by a president.

Is the third revolution within a span of 100 years for real? Tahrir Square can in a way be called the Third Modern Egyptian Revolution. The biggest point being missed that even if it is successful, who will replace Mubarak? The Army? Another dictatorial president? A fundamentalist party? An unstable political system? Things can get worse in a country even in the face of a momentous change.

One of the options for a new president is IAEA director general Mohamed ElBaradei, who came to international prominence during the Iraq arms inspection before the 2003 invasion. But he seems reluctant. While he has been an able bureaucrat, he is untried as a political leader.

Then there's the Muslim Brotherhood, which has stated in the past that it is against violence as a means to gain its goals. But how much experience does it have in running a country? More importantly, for a stable democracy, at least two to three options are always required for it to work.  

Unless more democratic political parties emerge, the country might revert to Army rule or dictatorship.

Just look at Pakistan...

One of the greatest revolutions of the twentieth century, the Indian Independence movement, led to the creation of Pakistan in 1947. By 1971, the country had been bifurcated and ravaged by military rule and Zulfikar Ali Bhutto led a new democratic revolution.

By 1977, Bhutto had become so unpopular, that some actually welcomed military dictator Zia-ul-Haq who gave his country stability for more than a decade. His death was celebrated all the same. Another fresh democracy wave came in the form of Benazir Bhutto.


Benazir`s only legacy today is the militancy policy of Kashmir which has now boomeranged and is eating up Pakistan. The Taliban was created at the end of her second term. The other Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif was equally ineffective.

The change of guard to General Pervez Musharraf was welcomed. The change from Musharraf to democracy was welcomed even more. After so many historic changes, Pakistan seems to be in a bigger mess it was than when it started.

Moral of the story?

You can have as many revolutions as you want, but unless there is continuous democracy, progress and development, it’s all the same in the end.

When the change is too slow...

Suddenly the whole Arab world seems to be in the throes of revolution. But can a mere change in leadership be called a revolution?

Iran had a revolution in 1979. Iraq went from being a monarchy to a republic in 1958. Saudi Arabia was unified in 1932. And so on. So with so much change in the Arab world and so much oil money, why do things look so bad there?

One of the reasons for that is that countries like Egypt have adopted the slowest path to democracy. That route is foreign occupation to monarchy; monarchy to dictatorship; dictatorship to shaky democracy. America went straight from British rule to democracy after 1776 and it is no wonder that it subsequently became a superpower.

Then what about the role of America? West Asia, Israel and the United States form an uneasy relationship.

Egypt was crucial thanks to its peace treaty with Israel.
If the new government takes an anti-Israel stance, then America will go all out to counter that. America, while being one of the world's greatest democracies, has a history of backing dictators and authoritarian regimes.

One should not get carried away by Tahrir Square. 

The 1989 Tiananmen Square protests did not change China. But the 1978 economic reforms by Deng Xiaoping did.

Dominoes are falling all over the world. But it will come to naught if a new set of dominoes comes up only to be knocked down after some time.


Here's hoping that Egypt can form a stable and viable democratic system with the right economic model in the coming years.

The Egyptian people sure know what they want. But can they actually get it?

That is the moot question.

The author is a Bangalore-based journalist and blogger.

More articles by Sunil Rajguru