The disintegration of Pakistan has finally begun...

Last Updated: Thu, Oct 01, 2015 08:46 hrs

Pakistan was a doomed State right from the very beginning. It was an artificial idea and 68 years after its creation it finally seems to be falling to pieces. The "K" in Pakistan stands for Kashmir, but they failed to secure the Valley in 1947-48.

They failed to get the Rann of Kutch by force in 1965, Siachen in 1984 and Kargil in 1999. To make matters worse they lost East Pakistan in 1971. Pakistan has been one long saga of losses and heartbreaks.

Here's why the future looks even grimmer...

Balochistan Independence: Balochistan is the largest province of Pakistan and occupies a whopping 44% of the country's area. How small would Pakistan be if it broke away? The Balochs never considered themselves Pakistanis and there is a movement for Independence.

While insurgents have been rebelling since 1948, it became much stronger in 2003. In all thousands have been killed in the conflict so far. The President of the Baloch National Movement was kidnapped and executed in 2009.

In the same year Mir Suleiman Dawood (a descendant of former rulers of the region) declared himself ruler of Balochistan and set up a Council for Independent
Balochistan.

War in Waziristan: The Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) and other terrorist groups including those aligned to Al-Qaeda and Islamic State have virtually taken over mountainous areas in North-West Pakistan.

The Pakistani Army has attacked them and a full-fledged war has broken out. To give you a scale of the operations, about 150,000 soldiers are battling about 30,000 terrorists (an equal number have already been killed). The casualties are high among the security forces too.

This is endemic of a larger problem and more than 50,000 civilians have been killed in terrorist attacks since 9/11. The Pakistani government has been supporting terrorist groups for decades now and Pakistan is finally imploding thanks to that with the centre of gravity being Waziristan.

Unrest in Pakistan occupied Kashmir: This one is a strange thing and has come out of the blue. Some time back a religious head told a large congregation that PoK was better off with India rather than Pakistan.

A few days back people started shouting pro-India slogans and indicated that they wanted to break away from Pakistan. As usual Pakistani authorities have come down hard on them, but that may not work.

Economic meltdown: The USSR was a superpower with a strong military and umpteen nuclear warheads, but it still disintegrated in 1991. The Pakistani economy is in shambles with no solution in sight.

The defence forces eat a huge amount of their budget and they are too dependent on America & Co. for funds. Recently they had an oil crisis and nobody wants to invest with Pakistan. There is great social instability and war and conflict has taken its toll.

Bye bye democracy: The Pakistani government is one of the weakest around and is at the mercy of the troika of the Pakistani Army, the US Government and terrorist groups. We have seen what happens to weak governments all over the world.

Iraq is practically divided into three parts with the government ruling one part, the Kurds one part and the Islamic State one part. IS has also captured a huge chunk of land from Syria and the civil war there is sending refugees all the way to Europe.

The Pakistani government is on the verge of collapse and it is predictable that a coup may take place, but even the Army there finally has no answer to the country's economic woes and the out of control terrorist groups.

As one can see, Pakistani is besieged from all fronts. The break-up of Pakistan is inevitable. They lost Kashmir at the beginning, Bangladesh in between and they could well lose Balochistan tomorrow.

While the world didn't care for the disintegration of Iraq and Syria, that will definitely not be the case with Pakistan thanks to its hundreds of nuclear weapons. America after World War 2 has always occupied some country or the other.

While it pulled out of Iraq and is pulling out of Afghanistan, don't be surprised if it occupies Pakistan tomorrow to ensure that the break-up of the country doesn't lead to nukes falling in the hands of terrorist groups!

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The author is a Bangalore-based journalist and blogger. He blogs here