A meeting of Indian Sugar Mills Association was held on Tuesday, wherein representatives of mills from all sugar-producing states discussed the areas from where the cane crop had been harvested, left out areas, crop yield and sugar production, as also expected yield/sugar recovery in the remaining period of the current sugar season.
ISMA had procured satellite images of areas under cane crop across the country in the last week of January 2020 to get a fair idea about the harvested crop and the area from where the harvest was yet to be taken up, almost half way through the season.
It was agreed at the meeting that sugar production during the 2019-20 cane season would be slightly more than what was estimated by ISMA in November 2019.
Mills in Uttar Pradesh are expected to produce about 118 lakh tonnes in the 2019-20 season, almost similar to what they produced in 2018-19.
Maharashtra is expected to produce about 62 lakh tonnes in the 2019-20 season, as against 107.20 lakh tonnes in 2018-19. Based on the analysis, a higher yield is expected from cane available for harvesting, mainly in high-yielding districts like Kolhapur, Satara, Sangli and Pune in Maharashtra.
The 3rd major sugar producing state, Karnataka, is expected to produce about 33 lakh tonnes of sugar in the 2019-20 season, against 44.30 lakh tonnes in 2018-19. Good yield for the cane yet to be harvested is foreseen.
There have not been any major changes in other sugarcane growing states. As per the second advance estimate, Tamil Nadu, Gujarat, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Bihar, Punjab, Haryana, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Odisha and Uttarakhand are expected to produce a total of about 52 lakh tonnes, almost the same as ISMA's first estimate in November 2019.
As per the LOI for ethanol supply in the 2019-20 season, contracts for supply of ethanol during 2019-20 made from B heavy molasses and sugarcane juice is 61.63 crore litres and 10.60 crore litres respectively.
Another tender is under finalisation and is expected that some more ethanol supplies would be contracted, including ethanol from B heavy molasses and sugarcane juice.
In the wake of an estimated production of 26.5 million tonnes and opening stock of 14.5 million tonnes as of October 1, 2019, domestic consumption of 26 million tonnes and sugar exports of over 5 million tonnes, the closing stock as of September 30, 2020 is expected to be lower at around 10 million tonnes.
If the government continues with its buffer stock of 4 million tonnes in the next year too, the net available sugar balance for market sale will be around 6 million tonnes.