The sharp decline of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies and the recent turbulence in the market have certainly shaken investor confidence.
It highlights the fact that cryptocurrency isn’t just vulnerable to market forces but could also possibly face threats from emerging technologies.
If you’ve kept an eye on crypto news lately, you’ve probably read dramatic claims that quantum computing could possibly “break blockchains,” rendering cryptography obsolete. The headlines are eye-catching, but does it show a clear picture or is it all the signals without the noise? What is quantum computing and is it a real threat to crypto? If it is, then what does the timeline look like? Let’s demystify it.
How Can Quantum Computers Make Blockchains Vulnerable?
Quantum computing is a new approach to calculation whose objective is to solve problems that are too complex for the electronics-based supercomputers today. It employs the principles of fundamental physics and solves extremely complex problems extremely quickly, and has applications across a range of arenas and industries, including green technology, pharmaceuticals, transportation, and finance.
So, what makes quantum computing such a threat to blockchain security? Its ability to break cryptographic algorithms, which most cryptocurrencies today rely on, is what has everybody so on edge. Quantum computing isn’t just fast processing; it operates fundamentally differently from computers today. If and when they reach a certain level of reliability and power, they could possibly break ECC (Elliptic Curve Cryptography), which is the technology behind securing digital signatures, authenticating transactions, and generating public and private keys.
The fear is that quantum computers could crack this, and if they’re able to, then we might as well give up on blockchain security right away.
Some of the most vulnerable areas today include:
- Symmetric cryptography, such as AES (Advanced Encryption Standard).
- Hash functions, such as SHA-256, which are weakened but aren’t completely broken by quantum algorithms.
- Digital signatures, such as EdDSA and ECDSA, which are employed to validate blockchain transactions.
- Public key cryptography, including ECDH and RSA, which secure key communications and exchanges across the web.
However, there’s a crucial point everyone seems to be forgetting: these levels of quantum power don’t exist yet.
Where Are We On Timing?
There are some interesting breakthroughs when it comes to the quantum resources required to break blockchain technology. For instance, Google researchers found that breaking the technology that secures crypto wallets, the RSA encryption, requires far lesser quantum computing resources than previously thought. The team found that fewer than a million noisy qubits could crack the 2048-bit RSA in less than a week, with the computing power being 20 times lesser than the previous estimate. The breakthrough stems from smarter error correction methods and improved algorithms that sped up key calculations.
That being said, we’re likely more than a decade away from quantum machines posing any real threat to blockchain systems. Mounting credible attacks requires quantum computers to have thousands of high-fidelity logical qubits, and even the most advanced systems are far from this currently. Despite all the well-funded labs and rapid research, quantum computers like Google’s Sycamore and IBM’s Condor operate with far fewer qubits that what’s required to break blockchain. Although current projections suggest that we could possibly reach the required qubit scale within the next five years, there are harder milestones such as deep-circuit execution and fault tolerance. So, unless there’s a material shift in progress or a leap in error correction technology or architecture, cryptocurrency assets remain safe for now.
Are there any current, existing solutions that protect blockchains today? Actually, blockchains are already exploring mitigation strategies. For instance, Ethereum is pursuing strategies that place the responsibility for the signing/authentication logic with account implementation as opposed to the blockchain protocol. Meanwhile, Bitcoin is supporting PTPKH (Pay-To-Public-Key-Hash), which hides the recipient’s public key behind a hash. It provides partial protection since hash functions are not that quantum-sensitive, solving the short-term problem.
What Lies Ahead
Ethereum’s co-founder and long time blockchain and cryptocurrency expert Vitaly Buterin sounded warning bells about the risks posed by quantum computing to cryptography, and his theory isn’t far-off, even if it’s far away into the future. Even though the risk is distant, mitigation is equally complex. Quantum technology is advancing faster than we can wrap our heads around it, and the cryptocurrency industry certainly needs to get ahead of it.
As it is, switching to quantum-safe cryptography isn’t an overnight job; it involves changing the very algorithms that secure blockchains, wallets, and transactions.
Enterprises need to recognise quantum computing’s long-term threat to current cryptography, especially digital assets, and proactively plan for this shift. With the quantum supremacy timeline shifting every day, the potential impacts on cryptocurrencies are massive. Acting now allows us to get ahead of it, helping potentially avoid serious breaches in digital asset security and long-term threats to traditional cryptographic systems.
We should be aiming for quantum readiness by 2030, as preparing for it beforehand is probably the best defense we have against any possible quantum attacks on digital asset and blockchain security.
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