Artificial Intelligence picked the winners of the 2026 World Cup winners before a ball was even kicked but how reliable are these predictions?
Thanks to Artificial Intelligence, Paul can rest in peace. Remember the octopus who used to pick up World Cup match winners back in 2010? Well, we’ve gone from marine invertebrates to artificial intelligence now with all the LLMs picking various winners of the world’s most watched sporting spectacle.
From OpenAI’s ChatGPT and Google’s Gemini to Anthropic’s Claude and Opta’s supercomputer, all of them have predicted the winners of the 2026 event being held in USA, Mexico and Canada.
But their predicted winners have all been different which goes to show the promise as well as the limitations of artificial intelligence.
Who did each AI pick?
According to an article in MarketWatch, ChatGPT picked Argentina while Gemini picked the Netherlands. Claude has gone for France while Perplexity and Opta Supercomputer have gone for Spain.
The boldest prediction of this lot came from Gemini who picked Netherlands who have never won a World Cup before. Gemini’s preference was favoured by the teams’ strong defensive structure, balanced midfield and what was considered a favourable route through the tournament. But having watched how things unfolded on the field, we now know that this prediction is wrong as the Netherlands are out of the World Cup already.
ChatGPT picked current holders Argentina for their ability to wring out results and play under pressure while Claude opted for France owing to the team’s immense squad depth. Opta’s statistical supercomputer has listed Spain as favourites after running thousands of tournament simulations.
The model that isn’t really AI
The prediction that caught the most headlines before the tournament started was German economist Joachim Klement’s bold claim that Netherlands would beat Portugal to win the 2026 World Cup final. Having picked the winners correctly in 2018 and 2022, his pick naturally got a lot of attention.
His prediction also got a lot of media attention, falsely claiming to be an ‘AI prediction’ but his calculations were based on combines factors such as FIFA rankings, population, GDP per capita, football culture and historical performance before simulating tournament outcomes.
His prediction this time however was incorrect as his winners are already out of the tournament.
How does AI predict a football tournament?
Unlike humans, AI does not rely on instinct or emotions when it comes to predictions of this nature. The final choice is picked after consuming large amounts of data.
Depending on the AI model, the following inputs are included in the calculation:
- FIFA and Elo rankings
- Recent team performances
- Individual player statistics
- Squad depth and injuries
- Historical World Cup results
- Betting market odds
- Thousands of simulated tournament scenarios
While statistical models like Opta’s Supercomputer runs thousands of simulations of each match to factor in for every scenario, LLMs like ChatGPT and Claude synthesise available data, statistics and historical patterns to produce a reasoned prediction.
The Last Word
If AI predictions are based on data, why does every model have a different winner?
The answer to this question lies in the data and methodology used by each system. A statistical engine like Opta relies on generated probabilities while chatbots like GPT rely on statistical information and broader contextual knowledge. Factors are also valued differently; some may consider squad depth while others prioritise tournament experience or strength of oppositions.
But despite all these calculations, football (and sport) by nature is unpredictable. A moment of magic by a player or a costly error by another or even a referee intervention can decide the fate of a match or a tournament.
As the tournament continues it’s a matter of weeks before we know who the actual winner will be. Which AI system got it right this time remains to be seen…
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